Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
