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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.